Supply Chain Spooks & Trend Gaps: How Laser Makers Can Lead This Holiday

Let’s talk about trends—and the dreaded T-word (cough tariffs cough)—and how they could impact the upcoming Halloween and fall holiday decor season.

It’s been just over 30 days since Paris Fashion Week wrapped up, showcasing most designers’ Fall/Winter 2025 collections. Even if you’re not in the fashion world, trend-driven industries—interior design, seasonal decor, party planning, and beyond—closely monitor runway shows to anticipate what’s coming. But with current tariffs disrupting production pipelines, a big question looms: when, where, and how will we actually see these trends reflected in 2025 holiday decor? 

Early Retail Releases & Familiar Faces 

In researching the potential impacts of tariffs on fall/winter trends, I noticed At Home has already begun releasing parts of their Halloween collection—well ahead of the usual schedule. While many retailers tease Halloween products as early as April or May, most full collections don’t drop until July, just in time for Summerween. 

At Home appears to be the first major retailer pushing Halloween this early. And notably, many of the items featured are re-releases or variations of last year’s bestsellers.

Let’s not forget:

• Target went viral in 2024 for its terracotta pumpkins and ghosts.
• You couldn’t walk into a HomeGoods without spotting a disco-ball jack-o'-lantern.
• Michael’s mushroom-inspired Haunted Forest collection was one of our most popular trending reels. 

And yes, I’ll admit it: the wide-eyed minimalist ghost has become a Halloween staple—but I can’t see those eyes without immediately thinking of the laser-cut ghosties from @unrefined.grace. 

Why These Items, and Why Now?

From a product planning perspective, there are two clear strategies retailers seem to be adopting for their 2025 Halloween and fall collections in response to tariff and supply chain challenges:

1. Early Birds Get the Worm... Even if It’s Last Year’s Worm

Anticipating tariff-related issues, many retailers accelerated their production timelines and placed early orders to secure inventory. This means collection decisions had to be made much earlier than usual.

Trend forecasting seasonal decor is already a challenge. Doing it immediately after the previous season? Nearly impossible. Without time to properly evaluate emerging trends, many brands chose the safe route—reissuing 2024’s top sellers, perhaps with a slight twist.

Now that product is arriving earlier than expected, and with economic pressures creating cash flow challenges, retailers are likely trying to sell as early as possible—just like At Home is doing.

2. Rescheduling Summerween

On the flip side, brands that didn’t finalize production before tariff hikes may find themselves delaying releases or scrambling to adapt their supply chains. Whether they’re waiting for tariffs to shift or finding new manufacturers, this leads to delays in production, reduced variety, and potential inventory shortages.

Worst case scenario? Some holiday products could be canceled altogether or even refused at port—never making it to shelves.

What This Means for Laser Crafters & Makers

Much has already been said about how tariffs might affect material costs for us makers and small business owners. Instead, let’s focus on how disrupted trend forecasting and limited seasonal inventory could create real opportunity for makers in 2025 during the holiday season.

1. Stagnant Shelves = New Traffic for Makers

Seasonal purchases are an indulgence, not a need, and are often driven by consumers’ desire for self-expression. If shoppers don’t find items that match their aesthetic or must-have trend in big box stores, they may choose to skip buying altogether—or turn to eslwhere to fill the gap.                                                                                                       

Limited selections or 2024 repeats could push consumers to your website, Etsy shop, or craft fair booth in search of something unique and on-trend.

Additionally, boutiques that are used to purchasing holiday inventory from larger wholesalers may be met with limited selection or stale has-beens. These specialty boutiques may be looking to supplement their displays with eye-catching and current pieces from makers.

2. When Trends Aren’t Accessible, DIY Takes Over

Any time a high-demand, on-trend item sells out or prices itself out, a DIY version goes viral. Remember the white Walmart nutcracker from last year? Once it sold out, creators jumped in with build-your-own guides and laser-cut alternatives.

This is your cue to act. How can you use your laser to help customers bring a trend to life?

Look ahead at emerging trends and offer them in an easy, DIY format. For example, Vegas Cowgirl motifs are hot right now—why not create a glitzy, Western-inspired Halloween mantel display kit?

3. This Season, You Can Set the Trend AND Sell the Trend

With major retailers releasing fewer new (and potentially late) holiday items this year, there's less trend-setting happening at scale. Retailers also have less flexibility to quickly and cheaply produce mass-market knockoffs of original ideas. This creates a rare opportunity for makers to step in, not only to set the trends but to sell them directly and immediately through their own channels.

If you normally wait for a viral Marshall’s find to inspire your Halloween collection—don’t. Push your own holiday content early and often. Less noise from major retailers means more visibility and potential sales for indie creators who show up and stand out.

4. Higher Retail Prices Could Drive Demand for Higher-Quality Pieces

Tariffs will force big retailers to raise prices—sometimes significantly. When a mass-produced Halloween trinket jumps from $20 to $40, suddenly your $50 handmade item starts looking like a great deal.

Shoppers are savvier than ever and want their money to go further. Now is the time to emphasize the value, quality, and craftsmanship of your products.

Final Thoughts

No matter what happens—whether tariffs go up, come down, or disappear entirely—they’ve already changed the landscape for Fall/Holiday 2025. While makers will feel the impact in our own ways, we have a unique chance to step in and deliver the timeliness, style, and variety that mass retailers may struggle to offer this season.

If you're a laser crafter or small business owner, this could be your opportunity to shine.